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Metrics Framework & Testing Plan

How to Know If It's Working

Test Architect: Murat Philosophy: Risk-based testing. Depth scales with impact. Data-driven decisions.

Critical Success Metrics (Must Track)

Leading Indicators (Week 1-2)

These tell you early if you're on track or need to pivot.

Metric Target Red Flag Action if Red Flag
First-session attendance 15+ people Week 1 <10 people Intensify outreach, consolidate locations
Contact capture rate 80%+ <60% Simplify signup process, incentivize
48-hour response rate 40%+ reply to first contact <20% Test different messaging, timing
Ambassador activation 20+ of 30 say yes <15 Personal calls, improve incentives
Property manager responses 3+ positive responses <2 Shift focus to Strategy 1 & 3

Momentum Indicators (Week 2-3)

These show if your retention system is working.

Metric Target Red Flag Action if Red Flag
Week 1 → Week 2 return rate 60% <40% Fix retention flow, survey dropouts
Week 2 → Week 3 return rate 75% <50% Experience isn't compelling enough
Referral rate 20% bring a friend by Week 3 <10% Explicitly ask for referrals
Email open rate 40%+ <25% Improve subject lines
SMS response rate 30%+ <15% Test voice note vs text

Conversion Indicators (Week 3-5)

These determine if you'll fill the January course.

Metric Target Red Flag Action if Red Flag
Intro talk signup rate 50% of Week 3+ attendees <30% Strengthen in-session promotion
Intro talk attendance 80% of signups show <60% Day-before confirmation calls
Intro talk → Course conversion 30-40% <20% Improve intro talk content, offer payment plans
Early bird discount uptake 60% register before Jan 8 <40% Emphasize deadline, create urgency

Tracking System

Master Google Sheet Structure

Tab 1: Session Attendance | Date | Location | Attendees | New | Returning | Contacts Captured | Notes | |------|----------|-----------|-----|-----------|-------------------|-------| | 11/27 | Building A | 12 | 12 | 0 | 10 (83%) | Good energy | | 12/4 | Building A | 15 | 8 | 7 (58% retention) | 14 (93%) | |

Tab 2: Participant Tracking | Name | Phone | Email | First Session | Sessions Attended | Buddy Assigned | Intro Talk? | Course Registered? | |------|-------|-------|---------------|-------------------|----------------|-------------|-------------------| | Jane Doe | 202-555-1234 | jane@email.com | 11/27 | 11/27, 12/4, 12/11 | Sarah K. | Yes (12/14) | Yes |

Tab 3: Communication Log | Name | Voice Note Sent | SMS Sent | Email Sent | Responses | Week 2 Attended? | |------|----------------|----------|------------|-----------|------------------| | Jane Doe | 11/27 8pm | 11/28 9am | 11/29 10am | Replied to SMS | Yes |

Tab 4: Strategy Performance | Strategy | Contacts Generated | Intro Talk Attendees | Course Registrations | Cost | ROI | |----------|-------------------|---------------------|---------------------|------|-----| | Graduate Ambassadors | 45 | 32 | 15 | $150 | 10x | | Residential Buildings | 38 | 12 | 4 | $250 | 1.6x |

Tab 5: Weekly Dashboard | Week | Total Attendance | New Contacts | Retention Rate | Intro Signups | Course Registrations | Notes | |------|-----------------|--------------|----------------|---------------|---------------------|-------| | 1 (11/27) | 20 | 20 | N/A | 0 | 0 | Launch week | | 2 (12/4) | 28 | 16 | 60% | 3 | 0 | On track |

A/B Testing Plan

Week 1 Experiments (Sprint 1)

Test 1: Voice Note vs. SMS (Sally's Hypothesis)

  • What: Hour-1 retention contact method
  • Group A: Voice note via WhatsApp
  • Group B: Text message only
  • Sample size: Minimum 20 people (10 per group)
  • Measure: Week 2 return rate
  • Decision criteria: If voice note improves retention by >15%, use voice notes for all

Test 2: Messaging Variants

  • What: Session promotion messaging
  • Variant A: "Free Stress-Relief Meditation"
  • Variant B: "Navigate Uncertainty with Breathwork"
  • Variant C: "Science-Backed Calm for DC Professionals"
  • Where: Property manager outreach, flyers, social posts
  • Measure: First-session attendance per variant
  • Decision criteria: Double down on highest-performing message Week 2

Test 3: Session Timing (If Feasible)

  • What: Optimal session time
  • Option A: Wednesday 7:00 PM
  • Option B: Wednesday 12:00 PM (lunch)
  • Option C: Saturday 10:00 AM
  • Measure: Attendance and retention rates
  • Decision criteria: Focus on time slot with best retention

Week 2 Optimizations

Based on Week 1 data: - Kill underperforming channels - Double down on what works - Refine messaging - Adjust retention flow timing

Example: - If voice notes win → train all volunteers on voice notes - If evening sessions win → consolidate to evenings only - If "stress-free" messaging wins → update all collateral

Week 3-4 Iteration

Focus: Conversion optimization - Test different intro talk closing scripts - Test discount amounts (if allowed) - Test payment plan messaging - Test testimonial formats (video vs. written)

Risk Mitigation Framework

High-Risk Scenarios

RISK 1: Property Managers Ignore Outreach

  • Likelihood: HIGH (60%)
  • Impact: MEDIUM (reduces Strategy 2 effectiveness)
  • Mitigation:
  • Multi-touch approach (email → phone → in-person)
  • Fallback: Focus on Strategies 1 & 3
  • Pivot timeline: If <2 responses by Nov 26, deprioritize Strategy 2
  • Test: Week 1 outreach results

RISK 2: First Sessions Have <5 People

  • Likelihood: MEDIUM (30%)
  • Impact: HIGH (demoralizing, inefficient)
  • Mitigation:
  • Consolidate locations (better to have 1 full session than 3 empty ones)
  • Intensify promotion (Ambassadors attend Week 1 to boost numbers)
  • Lower threshold for "success" (8-10 people is still viable)
  • Test: Week 1 attendance data

RISK 3: Retention Flow Breaks (Volunteer No-Shows)

  • Likelihood: MEDIUM (35%)
  • Impact: HIGH (kills retention system)
  • Mitigation:
  • Backup volunteers assigned for each role
  • Automated email sequence as fallback
  • Community Connectors handle max 10 people each (scalability)
  • Test: Week 1 volunteer execution tracking

RISK 4: December 21 WMD Competes with Holiday Travel

  • Likelihood: MEDIUM (40%)
  • Impact: MEDIUM (lower WMD attendance)
  • Mitigation:
  • Frame as "escape holiday stress" not "add to schedule"
  • Host early (7 PM) to accommodate dinner plans
  • Hybrid option (if technically feasible)
  • Test: RSVP data Dec 15-20

RISK 5: January Course Timing Conflicts

  • Likelihood: LOW (20%)
  • Impact: MEDIUM (lose late converters)
  • Mitigation:
  • Offer February cohort as backup
  • Payment plans (pay now, take course later)
  • Flexible scheduling if possible
  • Test: Registration feedback

Medium-Risk Scenarios

RISK: Yoga Studios Slow to Respond

  • Fallback: Direct outreach to yoga teachers (not just studio owners)
  • Pivot: Offer workshops at Art of Living center instead

RISK: Digital Ads Don't Perform

  • Fallback: Redirect budget to printing/materials for Strategies 1-3
  • Pivot timeline: If <1% CTR after $200 spent, pause ads

RISK: Ambassador Fatigue

  • Fallback: Smaller ask (1 friend instead of 2)
  • Pivot: Focus on top 10 most engaged Ambassadors

Weekly Standup Metrics Review

Every Monday 8:00 PM

Agenda Item: Metrics Review (5 minutes)

Review Dashboard: 1. Last week attendance vs. target 2. Retention rate (actual vs. 60%/75% target) 3. Contact capture rate 4. Any red flags? 5. What's working? (do more) 6. What's not? (kill or fix)

Decision Framework: - Green metrics → Stay the course - Yellow metrics → Test improvements - Red metrics → Pivot or kill

Success Measurement - Campaign Level

Primary Goal: Fill January Course

Target: 25-40 registrations (viable class size) Minimum: 20 registrations (break-even) Stretch: 50+ registrations (exceptional)

Measure by: - Weekly registration tracker - Conversion funnel analytics - Revenue forecast

Secondary Goals

Community Building: - Target: 50+ unique individuals attend at least 1 meditation - Measure: Unique names in participant tracker

Email List Growth: - Target: 150+ contacts captured - Measure: Total contacts in database

World Meditation Day: - Target: 100+ attendees across all DC locations - Measure: WMD attendance count

Volunteer Engagement: - Target: 80%+ volunteer retention through campaign - Measure: Volunteer attendance at weekly standups

Testing Principles (Murat's Mandates)

  1. Test aggressively Week 1. You have 31 days. No time to waste.

  2. Kill what doesn't work. Ruthlessly. No emotional attachment to failing strategies.

  3. Double down on winners. If something works, scale it immediately.

  4. Small bets before big bets. Test with $200 before spending $800.

  5. Measure everything. If you can't measure it, you can't improve it.

  6. Weekly reviews, not monthly. Adapt fast.

  7. Qualitative + Quantitative. Numbers tell you WHAT. Conversations tell you WHY.

  8. Survey dropouts: "Why didn't you return Week 2?"
  9. Interview converters: "What made you sign up for the course?"

Survey Templates

Post-Session Survey (Week 1)

Sent via Google Form link in retention flow

  1. How did you hear about this meditation session?
  2. Friend/family
  3. Property manager/building
  4. Yoga studio
  5. Social media

  6. Other: _____

  7. How would you rate today's session? (1-5 stars)

  8. Will you attend again next week?

  9. Definitely yes
  10. Probably yes
  11. Not sure
  12. Probably not

  13. Definitely not

  14. What did you like most?

  15. What could be improved?

Week 2 Dropout Survey

Sent to people who attended Week 1 but not Week 2

  1. We missed you this week! What kept you from attending?
  2. Schedule conflict
  3. Didn't feel beneficial
  4. Forgot about it

  5. Other: _____

  6. Would you consider coming back in the future?

  7. How can we make this better for you?

Intro Talk Exit Survey

  1. How likely are you to register for The Happiness Course? (1-10)

  2. If <7: What's holding you back?

  3. Price
  4. Time commitment
  5. Not sure it's for me
  6. Want to think about it

  7. Other: _____

  8. What would make you more likely to register?

Data-Driven Decision Examples

Scenario 1: Week 1 retention rate is 45% (target: 60%) - Action: Survey dropouts immediately - If feedback: "Forgot about it" → Increase reminder touchpoints - If feedback: "Didn't feel beneficial" → Revise session structure

Scenario 2: Graduate Ambassador strategy produces 20 intro attendees, 10 course registrations (50% conversion!) - Action: Double down. Add second Ambassador recruitment wave. Increase incentives.

Scenario 3: Digital ads have 0.5% CTR after $200 (target: 2%) - Action: Kill ads. Redirect $500 to printing materials for Strategies 1-3.

Scenario 4: Residential building has 3 people at first session - Action: Don't give up yet. Intensify building-specific promotion. Ambassador who lives there invites neighbors. Give it 2 weeks, then consolidate if still low.

Final Success Checklist

By January 10: - [ ] 25+ course registrations ✅ PRIMARY GOAL - [ ] 60%+ Week 1→2 retention rate - [ ] 50+ unique meditation participants - [ ] 100+ contacts in database - [ ] 3+ successful intro talks completed - [ ] 80%+ volunteer retention

Murat's final note: The 48-hour retention flow (file 03) is your highest-leverage intervention. If that fails, nothing else matters. Test it aggressively Week 1. Iterate Week 2. Perfect it Week 3. Everything else is secondary.